Record IPO—Now Comes The Pain?

SpaceX’s massive IPO has jolted Wall Street, but the real fight is over whether hype can outrun hard numbers.

Quick Take

SpaceX raised **$75 billion** in a record-setting initial public offering, the biggest in U.S. history.^[1]
The company’s IPO price of **$135 a share** gave it a valuation near **$1.77 trillion**.^[2]
Supporters say SpaceX has a strong moat from reusable rockets, Starlink, and launch scale.^[9]
Critics say the valuation leans too much on future promises and not enough on current cash flow.^[2]^[11]

A Record Raise With Real Market Demand

SpaceX’s debut gave investors a rare look at a company that can still draw giant demand in a tight market.^[1] The offering raised $75 billion, and reports tied that number to the company’s filing and public statements.^[1]^[4] At $135 a share, the deal put SpaceX near a $1.77 trillion value, which made it one of the most watched listings in market history.^[2]^[5]

That scale matters because it shows there is still serious money chasing bold growth stories.^[17] Even so, the size of the raise does not settle the bigger question. A huge order book can prove demand, but it does not prove the price is wise. That is where the debate turns sharp, because the company now carries a valuation that pushes far beyond most normal business checks.^[14]

Why Bulls Say SpaceX Earns the Premium

Supporters point to SpaceX’s vertical design, rocket reuse, and fast learning cycle as the core of its advantage.^[1]^[9] They also argue that Starlink gives the company a real business with recurring revenue, while launch services and government work add depth. One analyst cited by CNBC said the mix of rockets, satellite broadband, and AI gives investors more than a single-theme story.^[2]

Morningstar analyst Nicholas Owens has said SpaceX’s cost edge and execution pace make direct rivals hard to match.^[10] That view fits the broader bull case: SpaceX is not just selling launches, but building a platform tied to broadband, defense, and future orbital systems.^[9] For conservative readers, the appeal is simple. Private enterprise built this, not Washington planning, and the market is rewarding real industrial ambition.^[1]^[9]

Why Skeptics Call the Valuation a Leap of Faith

The bearish case starts with the gap between the price tag and present results.^[2]^[14] Critics say SpaceX is still burning cash and earns far less than companies with similar market values.^[2] They also note that much of the launch work serves SpaceX’s own Starlink constellation, which raises questions about how broad the outside customer base really is.^[1] That makes the IPO look less like settled value and more like a bet on what might happen later.

Retail bought $405M of SpaceX in the first five days, more than Rivian's record and more than combined SPY and QQQ flows.

Yet the market cap market barely moved: $1.0T-$1.5T is still at 8c, and $2.0T-$2.5T sits around 50c despite the stock trading near a $2.5T valuation.

The…

— PredictWire (@PredictWire_) June 23, 2026

Some analysts have gone further, calling the valuation “a calculus based on faith.”^[11] Morningstar also said the highest-upside case depends on several things going right, including Starship progress and orbital data centers that do not exist yet.^[10]^[11] That is the kind of speculation many investors can stomach in a private round, but public buyers deserve sharper facts. A stock market price should rest on earnings, cash flow, and proven demand, not just vision and personality.^[2]^[10]

What Comes Next for Investors

The next phase will test whether the market can hold the price after the first wave of excitement fades.^[18]^[20] Some reports say lockup periods could later unlock far more shares, which may add pressure if early holders rush for the exits.^[23] That risk matters because giant IPOs often attract bold headlines first and harder questions later. When the dust settles, investors will want proof that this is a durable business, not just a headline machine.

SpaceX’s IPO also highlights a larger market trend that should concern anyone who values discipline.^[17] Wall Street keeps pushing higher and higher prices for companies built on future promises, while dismissing old rules about income and cash flow.^[14] That may thrill growth traders, but it also invites trouble when reality catches up. For readers who remember past bubbles, the lesson is familiar: big dreams can create real winners, but they can also hide weak math for a very long time.^[2]^[11]