On Monday, a special master given the task of redistricting New York’s congressional districts issued a proposed map.
This proposal would make the Empire State the center of the national battle for control of the U.S. House of Representatives.
Still waiting for the special master’s draft New York state senate maps to drop pic.twitter.com/OATPKTuZ73
— Michael Li 李之樸 (@mcpli) May 16, 2022
According to statistics uploaded on the nonpartisan Dave’s Redistricting App, the plan by Carnegie Mellon political science professor Jonathan Cervas would establish 15 districts benefitting Democratic politicians and five Republicans.
In a filing with the court supervising the redistricting process, Cervas stated the other six districts in Long Island, on Staten Island, and in the Hudson Valley to the north would likely be a bone of contention by the GOP and the Dems.
Patrick McAllister, a justice on the Steuben County Supreme Court, invalidated an early version of the maps approved by the state legislature.
These plans would have given Democrats a lead in 22 of New York’s 26 districts for the following decade.
Instead, Cervas recommended a layout that, in the appropriate political climate, might provide Republicans with the potential to capture up to 11 House seats.
Since the 2002 elections, Republicans have not held as many seats in New York as they once did.
The proposed map by Cervas improves Nicole Malliotakis’ (R) chances of retaining her Staten Island-based district.
Under Democratic boundaries, Malliotakis’s district would have gained thousands of new Democratic voters.
However, under Cervas’s plan, these voters would remain in the districts controlled by Representatives Jerrold Nadler (D) and Yvette Clarke (D).
As a result of the redistricting, two incumbent Democrats will now face an explosive contest for the same district.
After the maps were revealed, both Nadler and Democratic Representative Carolyn Maloney said they would compete for the same seat.
In 1992, we saw the election of both Nadler, head of the House Judiciary Council, and Maloney, chairman of the House Oversight Committee.
Long Island seats held by Tom Suozzi (D), who is vying for governor, and Andrew Garbarino (R), who is also running for governor, would become significantly more competitive than in recent years.
Jerry Nadler about his matchup against fellow Dem Rep. Carolyn Maloney: “It's unfortunate, but I'm going to run and I'm going win," he told @MZanona. He said, "You do what you have to do."
Asked if he would retire, Nadler insisted: "No, no, no.” https://t.co/Zb6Vf93mMf
— Manu Raju (@mkraju) May 17, 2022
Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney (D) is drawn into Rep. Mondaire Jones’s district (D).
Maloney, chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, stated he would run in the district most similar to Jones’.
A position held by Representative Antonio Delgado of the Democratic Party, who will be leaving Congress in no time to become the State’s lieutenant governor, would also be viable, albeit slightly more favorable to Democrats than Delgado’s current district.
By 15,000 votes, Delgado defeated then-Rep. John Faso (R) in the 2018 midterm elections.
One seat currently held by Republicans will continue to be a longstanding Democratic target. The seat held by retiring Republican Representative John Katko near Syracuse appears to be favored by Democrats.
The new map shows ten districts with a majority-minority population, all of which are located in the New York City metropolitan area.
Only one of these districts, Malliotakis’s, is currently represented by a Republican, while Democrats dominate the remaining nine.
The proposal by Cervas is not yet absolute. New Yorkers have until Wednesday to provide feedback.
The special master must submit his report by Friday. New York congressional primaries are slated for August 23.